25 January 2013

Prediction on the 13th Malaysia General Election Results (Part 4)

So far, I have covered 12 states (including Kuala Lumpur) for my prediction on the upcoming election results. Excluding the final two states i.e. Sabah and Sarawak, PR should be able to win 105 seats, which is still not enough to takeover Putrajaya.

Now, let's look at the final two.

Sabah

Sabah has 26 parliament seats, with only one won by DAP in 2008.

Being a Sabahan, though I'm not staying there for 5 years since, I can still read the sentiments via my Facebook news feed. The chinese voters, like any other state, are fed-up with BN and will show no mercy to UMNO in the next election.

One thing to take note, Sabah is always the most difficult-to-predict state in Malaysia due to the not-so-united relationship between local parties (i.e. SAPP and STAR) and PR, and the katak culture in Sabah that can cause the election results to turn upside down.

Also, the following forecast is based on one assumption i.e. no 3-corner fight between BN, PR and local party. Let's get going...

On top of the seat of Kota Kinabalu, which won narrowly by DAP in 2008, I believe the "opposition" can take another 4 urbanized seats in Sabah i.e.:
  • Sepanggar (SAPP) - A stronghold of SAPP (then-BN component party), beating PKR and DAP in a 3-corner fight in 2008. Not sure who will be sent by BN to contest in Sepanggar this time, but I believe SAPP  (now-opposition) will retain this seat with ease;
  • Penampang (UPKO) - Being an urbanized township that consists 33% chinese and 60% Kadazan/Dusun, the seat last won by Tan Sri Bernard Dompok by a mere 3k extra votes (13k vs 10k). This time round, I expect the opposition to takeover this seat, subject to no 3-corner fight.
  • Sandakan (LDP) - With 55% chinese voters in the book, I expect DAP to win easily this time round. BN won by only 176 extra votes in 2008.
  • Tawau (SAPP) - Another seat with majority chinese voters (39%), I don't think any BN contestant has ground to win votes here. Not sure on the negotiation between SAPP and DAP for the candidacy, but either one can win with ease.
With 5 seats in the pocket of the "opposition", let's look at another 3 tight-battle seats:
  • Kota Belud (UMNO) - Won by UMNO in 2008 with a margin of only 3k votes (18k vs 15k). 92% of the voters are Kadazan/Dusun and many of them have access to internet (I know because my ex-girl friend lives somewhere nearby). Though not as urbanized as Kota Kinabalu, I believe the voters are well very educated. Hence, this seat can go either way.
  • Keningau (PBS) - The most watched seat in Sabah election given the most high profile battle between the Kitingan brothers i.e. Pairin Kitingan (PBS) and Jefferey Kitingan (STAR). Pairin has been the MP of Keningau for more than a decade, having represented both BN and opposition during the tenure. However, as announced by Jeffery that he will once again challenge his brother at Keningau in the next election, we should expect a close fight that can go either way.
  • Batu Sapi (PBS) - With 35% chinese and 38% Kadazan/Dusun, PBS won by almost 4k votes in 2008 (9k votes vs 5k votes). With the strong support by chinese this time round, I expect the another close fight that can go either way.
Assuming the opposition to take one out of the 3 close-fight seats, I predict the opposition to take 6 seats in total.

Sarawak

Sarawak has 31 parliament seats, with one won by DAP in 2008.

Unlike Sabah, Sarawak's election outcome is quite predictable. Chinese will vote for DAP as proven in the 2011 state election, while the Bumiputeras are still likely to vote BN (for whatever reason it is).

Similar to Sabah, the only seat won by DAP in 2008 located in the heart of the state capital i.e. Bandar Kuching (90% chinese voters). Well, you know what I mean.

On top of that, I expect PR (or DAP) to take another 4 seats i.e.:
  • Stampin (SUPP) - With 74% chinese voters in book, and swept by DAP in the 2011 state election, I see no problem for DAP to takeover this time.
  • Sarikei (SUPP) - Similarly, with 67% chinese voters, DAP's time has come.
  • Lanang (SUPP) - Ditto (73% chinese voters)
  • Miri (SUPP) - Ditto (61% chinese voters)
On other seats, I see 4 can go either way, judging from the results of 2011 state election:
  • Lubok Antu (PRS) - Won by BN-component party by merely 1.6k more votes (6.7k votes vs 5.1k votes) in 2008. Expect a tough fight for each side.
  • Sibu (SUPP) - Even with 65% chinese voters in book, I cannot predict a sure-win for DAP judging from the 2011 state election results (well split between BN and PR). But chances are still 50-50 for the opposition.
  • Selangau (PRS) - In the 2011 state election, BN (PRS) won both state seats (i.e. Tamin and Kakus)  in Selangau by very small margin. Will see a close fight again and don't be surprised to see PR take this seat.
  • Bintulu (SPDP) - With 28% chinese voters and 62% bumiputeras voters, Bintulu is still a stronghold of BN (last won with huge margin). However, 2011 state election saw 1 of 3 state seats in Bintulu fall to the hand of DAP. Slim chance but still possible.
It is not going to be easy to take away any of the above seat, but I am still hopeful on PR to grab at least 1 seat. That sums up my forecast on Sarawak to 6 seats for PR.

Overall

Let's look at the total seats to be won by PR:
Overall, that sums up to:
Johor: 10
Pahang: 5
Melaka: 2
Terengganu: 2
Kelantan: 12
Perak: 17
Selangor: 19
Penang: 11
Kuala Lumpur: 10
Kedah: 13
Perlis: 1
N.Sembilan: 3
Sabah: 6
Sarawak: 6
Total: 117

117 seats in the parliament, enough for a mandate to takeover Putrajaya. But (don't be too happy so soon), it is not impossible for BN to buy-over 6 kataks to overturn the results (they  can simply buy 6 from Sabah alone). Like I said in Part 1, PR needs at least 122 seats to be safe.

Nonetheless, my forecast is generally based on few assumptions as follow:
  • Huge dominance of chinese votes to PR, in all states
  • Tight-battle seats in 2008 will fall to PR's hand
  • Sarawak forecast based on 2011 state election
and I didn't accounted in:
  • Swing of more Malay-votes from BN to PAS/PKR, or vice versa
  • 3-corner fights in Sabah and Sarawak
  • Dirty tricks of the BN-EC United
How accurate is my forecast? We shall see in 3 months time.

Cheers.

1 comment:

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